Tuesday, November 02, 2004

My Warning Goes Unheeded

A low moment for the right side of the blogosphere today, folks. Certain very high-trafficked blogs who shall go nameless (I never said linkless), got spun by Drudge(?!!) and Wonkette (??!!!) into wild, ranting defeatism. Holy cripes, unsourced, early exit polls?!!

As the news went along they turned out to be (gasp) not very reliable.

Now I'm no polling guru. But I know enough to realize you can't guess the outcome of an election by the earliest exit polls. In 2000 even the final exit polls were far off in a lot of cases. In 2002 even moreso.

It got so bad even Free Republic had to ban exit poll rumors. Free Republic lives for that stuff! Those of you who freaked out (you know who you are) got majorly spun by some pretty cheap PR. Take it as a lesson for next time.

I certainly hope it didn't depress turnout in the end.

Now we can get down to watching some real data come in. I'm using John Fund's election night guide to tell me when to start watching for real numbers.

UPDATE: Heh. The Elder at Fraters Libertas has the best line I've seen on this yet.

"If you've been reading the early exit polls at NRO's The Corner all day and are just about ready to give a Kent Brockmanesque welcome to our new Democratic overlord, snap the hell out of it."


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