Tuesday, October 12, 2004

Ohio Polling Info You Won't See in the MSM

One of the states I have been keeping an eye on in the upcoming election is Ohio. The battleground of battlegrounds. The bellwether of bellwethers. And a state that has a Freeper pseudonymed "Common Tator" (known as Ray Malone in real life), who has been a Republican Party activist for quite some time, reporting insider (not classified - I'm talking about perspective) information from the grass-roots of the Ohio Bush campaign with insight and detail over the course of this campaign.

In light of a whole host of wildly conflicting polling data - some of it concerning Ohio - I thought I'd check in with Common Tator and see if he had anything to note about it. Indeed he does. The following is a comment he left on this Free Republic thread:

I talk to Ohio Bush campaign staffers about once a week. I will be with the staffer in charge of southern Ohio tomorrow evening. WE are going to watch the debate together.

It is important to know the difference between the media polls, the media tracking polls, and the campaign tracking polls.

The campaign polls measure turn out. They poll for it. The media polls even the media tracking polls use turnout numbers from the past. Most are using the turnout numbers from 2000. They are grossly inaccurate.

First of all the Republicans had no grass roots effort in 2000. The Republicans had never had one... and there was not enough time to organize a real grass roots effort.

That changed in 2002 when the Republicans did the unheard of... They picked up senate and house seats in the first off year election.

That was because the Republicans had a grass roots campaign. But the 2002 effort was nothing compared to the grass roots efforts in 2004. This time for the first time in history the Republicans have a grass roots effort that compares favorably with the Democrats grass roots efforts.

The prime difference is the Democratic grass roots effort is Mostly paid workers. Republicans are nearly all volunteers.

The gay agenda, abortion issue and Kerry's problem with veterans are all going to cause a real change in results.

IN many respects it is like 1994. The media polls were predicting the Democrats would hold control of the house.

None of the polls or the pundits saw that the Republicans were going to easily win control of the House.

They don't see what is coming this time either

I see similar trends in Minnesota, slipping beneath the radar of polling and the MSM.

Obviously we'll find out on November 3rd if Common Tator and I are falling victim to wishful thinking, or not.

For the record, as of today I have a gut feeling tonight that, barring any major poll-shaking events between now and election day, Bush will carry Minnesota by three points. I didn't just pull that out of the air. That's the margin Norm Coleman beat Walter Mondale by in the U. S. Senate race two years ago, when the polls showed a slight Mondale lead. An energized Republican base made the difference there. Ditto this time.

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